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2021 Q4 Market Report

Cedi Performance and Macro-Economic Indicators

The Cedi was relatively stable at the end of the year 2021 against the major currencies. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the cedi had depreciated by 4.09% and 3.11% against the US Dollar and the British pound respectively on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, while an appreciation of 3.46% was recorded against the Euro. The depreciation of the Ghana cedi relative to the major currencies during the quarter can be attributed to demand pressures from commerce, manufacturing, and energy sectors as economic activity picked up in the last half of the year.

Core inflation rate accelerated to 12.6% at the end of 2021 compared to 10.6% at the end of September 2021. The non-food group trended upwards from 9.9% in September 2021 to 12.5% in December 2021. Food and non-alcoholic beverage group inflation also trended upwards from 11.5% in September 2021 to 12.8% in December 2021. The rise in inflation in both groups resulted in the surge in inflation for December 2021.

The Bank of Ghana raised the monetary policy rate to 14.50% in November citing heightened inflationary pressures. Inflation is currently above the Central Bank’s upper limit of the medium-term target band which poses significant risk to the inflation outlook. The major risks include rising global inflation, high energy prices, uncertainties surrounding food prices and investor behaviour.

The table below provides details of the rates and movement in the currency market.

Economic Review

 Q3 2021Q4 2021Change (YoY)
Monetary Policy Rate13.50%14.50%1.00%
Inflation Rate10.60%12.60%2.00%
Inflation and Monetary Rate Comparison

 Close (30th Sept 2021)Close (31st Dec 2021)Quarter Depreciation
US Dollar/Ghana Cedi5.876.010.14%
British Pound/Ghana Cedi7.918.130.22%
Euro/Ghana Cedi6.806.830.03%
Interbank Forex Rates (GH₵)

Government Borrowing

The 91-, 182- and 364-Day Treasury Bills began the third quarter of 2021 at 12.49%, 13.21% and 16.13% respectively and traded at 12.51%, 13.18% and 16.56%, respectively at the end of the year. The government also issued a 2-Year and 5-Year Bond at 20.00% and 21.00% respectively. Compared to the third quarter 2021, interest rates of GoG securities at various maturities trended upwards except the 182-Day bill.

The public debt issuance calendar for period October to December 2021 reveals government’s plans to issue cedi-denominated domestic debt securities amounting to GH₵23.23 billion from the domestic market.

Q4 2020Q4 2021Difference
91 Day T-bill14.06%12.48%1.58%
182 Day T-Bill14.12%13.17%0.95%
364 Day T-Bill16.98%16.34%0.64%
5 Year T-Bond19.85%20.00%0.15%
Forth Quarter Average Interest Rate (2020 and 2021)

Comparative Yield Curve (2020 – 2021)

Stock Market Performance

The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) and GSE Financial Stock Index (GSE-FSI) closed 2021 with year-to-date (YTD) returns of 43.66% and 20.70%, respectively compared to 47.06% and 15.28% in September 2021. The fall in GSE index can be attributed to the investors taking profits as well as rise of interest rate in the fixed income market.

Ghana Stock Exchange Indices Trends (Year to Date)

Fan Milk Plc ranked first on the GSE in terms of year-to-date performance on the back of sustained recovery in economic activity following the downturn at the peak of the pandemic. This contributed to the continued sterling performance of the GSE in both the third and fourth quarter. The performance of the banking sector compared to third quarter improved, resulting in the GSE Financial Stock Index recording 15.28% from 4.97% in the fourth quarter.

During the quarter, there were 10 gainers. BOPP was the top gainer with a quarterly return of 132.52%, closing the quarter at GH₵6.65. The rally was mainly due to investor confidence in the firm’s 2020 financial performance and increase in the global price of palm oil. ETI was the second largest gainer ending the quarter at GH₵0.14, which represented a 75.00% quarterly gain. The third gainer for the quarter was RBGH which had a quarterly return of 39.53%. The other gainers were FML, EGL, CAL, SIC and GCBL which gained 24.22%, 21.30%, 17.57%, 14.29%, 9.09%, 7.96% and 7.06% respectively. On the other hand, MTNGH led the pack of 8 losers, ending the quarter at GH₵1.11, representing a quarterly loss of 10.48%, followed by MAC ending the quarter at GH₵5.39, which represented a 9.87% quarterly loss. The other losers were ACCESS, SOGEGH, EGH, GCB and SCB which lost 9.74%, 4.00%, 2.69%, 2.60%, 0.25% and 0.17% respectively. Prices of 12 stocks remained flat.

The performance of the gainers and losers during the fourth quarter of 2021 on the GSE are detailed in the tables below.

Gainers

 Share Year HighYear Low30th Sept 2021 (GH₵)31st Dec 2021 (GH₵) YTD GainQuarter Gain
BOPP2.862.00            2.866.65232.50%  132.52%
ETI0.080.05            0.080.1475.00%  75.00%
RBGH0.450.41            0.430.6046.34%  39.53%
FML3.221.08            3.224.00270.37%  24.22%
EGL2.301.40            2.302.7999.29%  21.30%
CAL0.840.60            0.740.8726.09%  17.57%
SIC0.080.07            0.070.080.00%  14.29%
GGBL1.650.90            1.651.80100.00%  9.09%
TOTAL4.652.83            4.655.0277.39%  7.96%
GOIL1.701.50            1.701.8221.33%  7.06%
2021 Q4 Gainers – Ghana Stock Exchange

Losers

ShareYear HHighYear Low30th Sept 2021 (GH₵)31st Dec 2021 (GH₵)YTD LossQuarter Loss
MTNGH1.260.64            1.241.1173.44%  10.48%
MAC5.985.98            5.985.399.87%  9.87%
ACCESS4.393.49            3.493.1528.25%  9.74%
SOGEGH1.250.64            1.251.2087.50%  4.00%
EGH7.817.00            7.817.605.56%  2.69%
GCB5.404.05            5.385.2429.38%2.60%
SCB20.3516.31           20.3520.3024.46%0.25%
UNIL8.292.00            5.905.8928.95%0.17%
2021 Q4 Losers – Ghana Stock Exchange

Developments in the Capital Market

The Ghana Stock Exchange announced the acquisition of Golden Star by Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co. Ltd. Pursuant to and upon completion of the Transaction, holders of Golden Star Shares (“Golden Star Shareholders”) will receive total consideration, payable in cash, of US$3.91 (equivalent to approximately C$4.85) per Golden Star Share (the “Consideration”), which equates to a total Transaction value of approximately US$470 million on a fully diluted, in-the-money basis.

The Exchange also lifted the suspension of PBC limited listing as the company has rectified all the anomalies.

Current Economic Environment and Investment Implications

The cedi is likely to further depreciate against the dollar as the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rate during 2022. This move will potentially cause capital flight.

Interest rates are expected to inch up marginally to make local bonds attractive to prevent capital flight amidst an increase in federal interest rates. Again, Government is likely to borrow more from the domestic market due to the increasing concerns over the country’s debt level which has reduced access to the international market.

As part of Government’s efforts towards fiscal consolidation, Government intends to cut down expenditure by 20%. This is to ensure that the expenditure for every quarter matches the revenue for the quarter. This move will help improve investors’ sentiments in the wake of the recent downgrading of Ghana to a B- (Negative Outlook) by Fitch Ratings. On the capital market, returns on the GSE Composite and GSE Financial Stock Indices are likely to be on a positive trajectory. The increase in GSE composite index will be driven mainly by fast moving consumer goods sector and MTNGH. Despite the introduction of the E-levy which may affect MoMo transactions the increase in the share price of MTNGH will be driven by growth in the company’s data and voice revenue as a result of the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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