Cedi Performance and Macro-Economic Indicators
At the close of the third quarter of 2021, the year-to-date (YTD) depreciation rate of the cedi against the US dollar and British pound was 1.81% and 0.50% respectively, while an appreciation of 3.96% was recorded against the Euro. The depreciation of the Ghana cedi relative to the major currencies during the quarter can be attributed to demand pressures from commerce, manufacturing, and energy sectors as economic activity picked up in the third quarter.
At the end of the September 2021, the inflation rate rose to 10.6% compared to 7.8% at the end of June 2021. The non-food group trended upwards from 8.2% in June 2021 to 9.9% in September 2021. Food and non-alcoholic beverage group inflation also trended upwards from 7.3% in June 2021 to 11.5% in September 2021. The rise in inflation in both groups resulted in the surge in inflation for September 2021.
The Bank of Ghana maintained the monetary policy rate at 13.50% due to the fiscal consolidation efforts that appeared to be on track and a strong external payments position. The maintenance of the policy rate at 13.50% will in the near term reflect in the cheaper credit by the commercial banks to the private sector.
The table below provides details of the rates and movement in the currency market.
Economic Review
| Q2 2021 | Q3 2021 | Change (YoY) | |
| Monetary Policy Rate | 13.50% | 13.50% | – |
| Inflation Rate | 7.80% | 10.60% | 2.80%  |
| Close (30th June 2021) | Close (30th Sept 2021) | Quarter Depreciation | |
| US Dollar/Ghana Cedi | 5.76 | 5.87 | 1.77%  |
| British Pound/Ghana Cedi | 7.96 | 7.91 | 0.57%  |
| Euro/Ghana Cedi | 6.83 | 6.80 | 0.56% |
Government Borrowing
The 91-, 182- and 364-Day Treasury Bills began the second quarter of 2021 at 12.62%, 13.38% and 16.33% respectively and decreased to 12.49%, 13.28% and 16.14%, respectively at the end of the quarter. The government also issued a 2-Year, 6-Year and a 10-Year Bond at 17.25, 18.80% and 19.75%, respectively. Compared to the second quarter 2021, interest rates of GoG securities at various maturities trended downwards.
The public debt issuance calendar for period June to September 2021 reveals government’s plans to issue cedi-denominated domestic debt securities amounting to GH₵23.23 billion from the domestic market. Of the targeted amount, GH₵22.61billion will be used to rollover maturing domestic debts while the remaining GH₵0.61 billion would be fresh issuance geared towards government’s budgetary financing requirements. Short term securities (91-Day to 364-Day Treasury Bills) account for GH₵15.13 billion of the debt issuance, while longer term government debt securities (6-Year, 10-Year and 15-Year Treasury Bonds) account for GH₵8.10 billion of the issuance.
| Q3 2020 | Q3 2021 | Difference | |
| 91 Day T-bill | 13.99% | 12.51% | 1.48% |
| 182 Day T-Bill | 14.08% | 13.28% | 0.80% |
| 364 Day T-Bill | 16.90% | 16.23% | 0.67% |
| 6 Year T-Bond | 19.50% | 18.80% | 0.70% |
Stock Market Performance
The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) and GSE Financial Stock Index (GSE-FSI) closed the third quarter with year-to-date (YTD) returns of 47.06% and 15.28%, respectively compared to 36.16% and 4.97% in June 2021. The improvement in the returns of the indices was due to price appreciation of some of the listed stocks, such as FML, SOGEGH and MTNGH.
Fan Milk Plc ranks first on the GSE in terms of year-to-date performance on the back of sustained recovery in economic activity following the downturn at the peak of the pandemic. This contributed to the continued sterling performance of the GSE in the third quarter. The performance of the banking sector compared to second quarter has improved, translating to the GSE Financial Stock Index recording 15.28% from 4.97% in the second quarter.
During the quarter, there were 11 gainers. FML was the top gainer with a quarterly return of 140.30%, closing the quarter at GH₵3.22. UNIL was the second largest gainer ending the quarter at GH₵5.90, which represented a 77.18% quarterly gain. The third gainer for the quarter was ETI which had a quarterly return of 60.00%. The other gainers were GGBL, EGL, TOTAL, EGH, GOIL, SCB, CAL and MTNGH which gained 27.91%, 27.78%, 27.40%, 11.57%, 11.57%, 9.68%, 9.41%,5.71% AND 3.33% respectively. On the other hand, CPC led the pack of 3 losers, ending the quarter at GH₵0.02, this represents a quarterly loss of 33.33%. Followed by RBGH ending the quarter at GH₵0.43, which represented a 4.44% quarterly loss. GCB lost the least during the quarter, its price dropped by 0.37%, closing the quarter at GH₵5.38. Prices of 14 stocks remained flat.
The performance of the gainers and losers during the third quarter of 2021 on the GSE has been outlined in the tables below.
Gainers
| Share | Year High (GH₵) | Year Low (GH₵) | 31st June 2021 (GH₵) | 30th Sept 2021 (GH₵) | YTD Gain (%) | Quarter Gain (%) |
| FML | 3.22 | 1.08 | 1.34 | 3.22 | 198.15% | 140.30% |
| UNIL | 8.29 | 2.00 | 3.33 | 5.90 | -28.83% | 77.18% |
| ETI | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.00% | 60.00% |
| GGBL | 1.65 | 0.90 | 1.29 | 1.65 | 83.33% | 27.91% |
| EGL | 2.30 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 2.30 | 64.29% | 27.78% |
| TOTAL | 4.65 | 2.83 | 3.65 | 4.65 | 64.31% | 27.40% |
| EGH | 7.81 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.81 | 8.47% | 11.57% |
| GOIL | 1.70 | 1.50 | 1.55 | 1.70 | 13.33% | 9.68% |
| SCB | 20.35 | 16.31 | 18.60 | 20.35 | 24.77% | 9.41% |
| CAL | 0.84 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 7.25% | 5.71% |
| MTNGH | 1.26 | 0.64 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 93.75% | 3.33% |
Losers
| Share | Year High | Year Low | 31st June 2021 (GH₵) | 30th Sept 2021 (GH₵) | YTD Loss (%) | Quarter Loss (%) |
| CPC | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 33.33% | 33.33% |
| RBGH | 0.45 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 0.43 | 4.88% | 4.44% |
| GCB | 5.40 | 4.05 | 5.40 | 5.38 | 32.84% | 0.37% |
Developments in the Capital Market
The Ghana Stock Exchange announced the listing and trading of GHs1.037 billion Ghana Bonds issued on September 1, 2021 on the Ghana Fixed Income Market.
Letshego Savings and Loans Plc announced the listing and trading of Tranches AFB 2600-3Y24 & AFB 2700-5Y26.
Current Economic Environment and Investment Implications
The World Bank revised Ghana’s growth rate to 4.9% in 2021, from the earlier forecast of 1.4%. The revision was based on strong growth in exports as well as the fiscal support by government towards the resilient performance of the economy despite the outbreak of the Delta variant. However, the revised GDP growth rate was 0.2% below government’s projected growth rate for 2021. Amidst this lies the high risk of debt distress which continues to linger on. Prudent fiscal consolidation and debt management strategies are needed to address the debt sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, we anticipate GDP growth rate to be in line with government’s projections of 5.1%.
The cedi is likely to further depreciate in the last quarter largely due to inflationary pressures and increased imports due to the festive season. On the capital market, the sterling performance of GSE Composite is expected to carry on to the next quarter mainly as a result of the upward movement in the price of FML, SOGEGH and MTN. Yields on newly issued fixed income securities are expected to slightly increase since government is likely to borrow more from the domestic market because of their inability to return to the international market this year.
